Prediction markets built for traders
Now you can trade yes/no outcomes on the events you already watch.
Your Prediction. Your Trade.
Markets worth having a view on
Predict price movements across energy and metals markets.
- Crude Oil / WTI
- Brent Crude
- Natural Gas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
Predict price outcomes for actively traded digital assets:
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Solana (SOL)
- XRP
- Dogecoin (DOGE)
Trade on the results of major U.S. economic data releases and policy decisions.
- CPI & Core CPI
- PCE Inflation
- Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
- Unemployment Rate
- FOMC Rate Decision
- GDP Growth
- PPI
- Retail Sales
- ISM Manufacturing PMI & ISM Services PMI
Follow central bank decisions and inflation data from major global economies.
- ECB Rate Decision
- Bank of England Rate Decision
- Bank of Japan Rate Decision
Track key U.S. market indicators and benchmark indices:
- S&P 500 (Hourly, Daily, Weekly Close)
- Nasdaq-100, Dow Jones, Russell 2000
- 2-Year & 10-Year Treasury Yields
- Fed Decision & Fed Funds Rate
- VIX Level at Close
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Predict price movements across energy and metals markets.
- Crude Oil / WTI
- Brent Crude
- Natural Gas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
Predict price outcomes for actively traded digital assets:
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Solana (SOL)
- XRP
- Dogecoin (DOGE)
Trade on the results of major U.S. economic data releases and policy decisions.
- CPI & Core CPI
- PCE Inflation
- Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
- Unemployment Rate
- FOMC Rate Decision
- GDP Growth
- PPI
- Retail Sales
- ISM Manufacturing PMI & ISM Services PMI
Follow central bank decisions and inflation data from major global economies.
- ECB Rate Decision
- Bank of England Rate Decision
- Bank of Japan Rate Decision
Track key U.S. market indicators and benchmark indices:
- S&P 500 (Hourly, Daily, Weekly Close)
- Nasdaq-100, Dow Jones, Russell 2000
- 2-Year & 10-Year Treasury Yields
- Fed Decision & Fed Funds Rate
- VIX Level at Close
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Think you can predict the market?
How event contracts settle
Assume you think Core CPI will come in at exactly 0.2% month-over-month in June. You buy 100 "Yes" contracts for an estimated $44.00 ($0.44 per contract, not including fees).
YES: Contracts pay out $1.00 each—a $56.00 profit
NO: Your loss is limited to the $44.00 you originally paid
Say Yes or No on the Go
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Frequently Asked Questions
Prediction markets, where you trade event contracts, let you trade on the probability of real-world outcomes. These are YES or NO positions on a single defined outcome. If your prediction is correct at settlement, the contract pays $1.00. If it's wrong, it expires worthless, and you lose the full amount you paid.
Pick an outcome, choose YES or NO, and set your position size. The price you pay reflects the market's implied probability—a contract at $0.65 means the market assigns roughly a 65% chance that outcome occurs. Your maximum loss is always limited to what you paid.
tastytrade offers event contracts across commodities, crypto, U.S. and international economics, and financial markets—including contracts on energy prices, metals, inflation readings, employment reports, equity index outcomes, and more. These can be traded on the Predict screen on the web platform and mobile app.
Sign in at my.tastytrade.com, go to Manage My Accounts > Trading Preferences, and complete the Event Contracts enablement. Once done, the Predict screen is active on your account.
Trading prediction markets is highly speculative and not suitable for all investors. You may lose 100% of your invested capital. These markets are offered through Apex. Read risk disclosures at tastytrade.com/disclosures/.