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Options Jive

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Gambler's Fallacy

Options Jive

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options.

The gambler's fallacy is a notion that believes the outcome of a random event can be predicted.

Some popular financial media outlets and even tastytrade to some degree fall prey to the gamblers fallacy by picking direction due to trends, or bucking the trend because of a sharp move.

Now let’s say your past three trades are losers averaging -$100 per trade.

Does this mean that you should place a larger position next time, expecting that your P/L will revert back to the 14-year average of $59?

NO! This exposes you to more risk wile your probability of profit stays the same.

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